How Atmospheric River Forecast Could Change California’s Water Problem

If California’s atmospheric river forecast proves true this winter, the state could have enough water to get through another dry summer.
Last winter, the West Coast faced a slew of atmospheric rivers that caused devastating floods and landslides. The storms also brought a deluge of rain that supplemented California lakes and rivers, helping to eliminate the state’s drought. Meteorologists are again predicting a wet winter for the West Coast, according to an AccuWeather report published Monday, with the forecast showing atmospheric rivers impacting northern, central and southern California over the winter.
Atmospheric rivers are a “long, narrow region in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
California battled years of severe drought before two, back-to-back wet winters in 2022 and 2023 helped alleviate the issue. Paul Pastelok, an AccuWeather senior meteorologist and long-range expert, told Newsweek that another wet winter could prove similarly beneficial for California’s water problem should it come to fruition.
“It will continue to improve the water situation. We had a pretty dry summer in California, and we all thought we had enough water supply from the previous two winter wet seasons to get us through a dry summer, and that seemed to be the case,” Pastelok said. “If this happens, it’ll help again to keep those levels good all the way through most of 2025.”
As of the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor map, California’s drought was restricted to the northeast and southeast corners of the state. Nearly 2 percent of the state suffered from severe drought, with 13 percent suffering from moderate drought.
However, at more than 75 percent, much of California was considered “abnormally dry,” the first classification on the drought monitor.
A larger percentage of California is struggling with drought compared to this time last year, when 6 percent of the state was abnormally dry and only .07 percent of the state was battling moderate drought. This summer, California endured dry weather and record-breaking hot temperatures, which contributed to its worsening drought.
November and December will see an uptick in wet weather for northern California, but the weather pattern is expected to shift midwinter. Atmospheric rivers will tend to impact central and southern California during January, the AccuWeather forecast said, before returning to the northern part of California to finish out the season.
However, the forecast could change if the water temperatures in the Pacific undergo a drastic change. If the warmest waters shift east, Pastelok warned, California could experience a dry, warm winter similar to the 2013-14 season.